برآورد تقاضای کاغذ بازیافت در ایران: مبتنی بر روش ARDL

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه جنگلداری، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه لرستان، خرم آباد، ایران

2 گروه علوم اقتصادی، دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و سیاسی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران

3 گروه جنگلداری، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه لرستان

10.22034/ijwp.2023.2005651.1618

چکیده

رشد اقتصادی و افزایش جمعیت، میزان تقاضای فرآورده‌های کاغذی را افزایش خواهد داد این در حالی است که منابع تامین ماده اولیه فرآورده‌های کاغذ محدود است. یکی از راه حل‌هایی که می‌تواند به حفظ منابع جنگلی کمک کند، بازیافت کاغذ باطله توام با پیشرفت در فناوری اطلاعات و ارتباطات است. هدف مقاله حاضر برآورد تابع تقاضای کاغذ بازیافت در اقتصاد ایران طی بازه زمانی فصلی 1379 تا 1400 مبتنی بر روش خود‌رگرسیون با وقفه توزیعی (ARDL) است. نتایج نشان می‌دهد، مهم‌ترین عامل موثر در تقاضای کاغذ بازیافتی در بلندمدت و کوتاه‌مدت متغیر تولید ناخالص داخلی است و به ترتیب ضرایب کشش‌های آن 46/0- و 22/0- برآورد شده است بطوریکه با افزایش سطح فعالیت‌های اقتصادی مصرف کاغذ بازیافت کاهش می‌یابد در نتیجه کاغذ بازیافت یک کالای پست محسوب می‌گردد. متغیر کاغذ چاپ و تحریر به عنوان کالای رقیب در بلند‌مدت و کوتاه‌مدت به ترتیب با ضریب کشش‌های 23/0 و 13/0 درصد به اندازه کافی جانشین قوی برای کاغذ بازیافت نمی‌باشد. از طرف دیگر با افزایش کاربران اینترنت تقاضای کاغذ بازیافت در بلند‌مدت 08/0 درصد افزایش می‌یابد در واقع با افزایش کاربران اینترنت و رایانه‌‌های شخصی مصرف کاغذ‌های اداری به دلیل خرید‌های آنلاین و همچنین افزایش تقاضا در بلند‌مدت، برای کاغذ‌های بسته‌بندی، کارتن و مقوا جهت اقلام سفارشی افزایش می‌یابد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

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