Analysis of Import Demand Function of Iranian Paper and Paperboard Using Bond Test

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Ph.D. student, Forest economic and management, Department of forestry, Faculty of agriculture, Lorestan University, Khorramabad, Iran

2 Assistant professor of economic forest, College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Lorestan

3 Department of Forestry, Faculty of Agriculture, Lorestan University, Khorramabad, Iran

4 Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Political Science, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran

Abstract

Wood pulp and paper as one of the wood products has undergone many changes in the regional and global market share in terms of production capacity and consumption patterns over the past few decades. Due to the limited domestic resources and the increasing trend of wood consumption and its products in Iran, imports have been considered as one of the most important ways to supply the domestic demand. The main intention of this study is to perform scientific analysis of the paper and paperboard market conditions over the period of 1986 to 2018 using Bound Test. The quantitative value of the impact of studied variables on the amount of paper and paperboard imports was calculated using the estimated short- and long-term elasticity. The results showed that among the studied variables the GDP (without taking into account of oil exportations) with elasticity of 2.16% in the short run and 1.26% in the long run, And the domestic wood production from northern forests with amount of -0.69 and -0.57 elasticity in short and long term, respectively; had the most impacts on paper imports. However, the economic sanctions considered as a new variable in this study resulted in a decrease of paper and paperboard imports with coefficients of -0.50 and -0.41 imports, in the short and long run respectively.

Keywords

Main Subjects

References

[1] Hetemaki, L., & Hurmekoski, E., 2016. Forest products markets under change: review and research implications. Current Forestry Reports, 2(3), 177-188.
[2] McCarthy, P., & Lei, L., 2010. Regional demands for pulp and paper products. Journal of forest economics, 16(2), 127-144.
[3]­ Poyry Inc., 2015. World fibre outlook up to 2030. Vantaa, Finland.
[4] Jonsson, R., Hurmekoski, E., Hetemaki, L., & Prestemon, J., 2017. What is the current state of forest product markets and how will they develop in the future?. European Forest Institute, Joensuu, Finland, 2017, 126-131.
[5] FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations), 2019. FAOSTAT. Available from http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/FO. Accessed on May 2018.
[6] Bahmani, A., Rafighi, A., Vali, M., Salari, A., 2012. Identification and Evaluation of Oncoming Changes of Wood and Paper Industries of the Country. Iranian Journal of Wood and Paper Industries, 2(2), 27-38. (In Persian).
[7] Arian, A., Faezipour, M., Azizi, M., Vlosky, R. P., & Leavengood, S. (2017). Evaluation of challenges of wood imports to Iran using fuzzy delphi analytical hierarchy process. Iranian Journal of Wood and Paper Industries, 8(2), 169. (In Persian).
[8] Khosravi, S., Maleknia, R., Adeli, K., Mohseni, R., & Hodges, D. G., 2018. The effects of globalization on the imports of wood products in Iran. Journal of Forest Economics, 32, 116-122.
[9] Tajdini, A., Roohnia, M., 2008. Investigation and prediction on Fluting Paper Supply &Demand in Iran. , 23(2), 123-135. doi: 10.22092/ijwpr.2008.117410
[10] Liyani, G., Esmayili, A.,2014. The Effects of Forest Exploitation ON Wood Import Regulation in Northern Iran. Agricultural Economics Research, 5(20), 25-45. (In Persian).
[11] Limaei, S. M., Heybatian, R., Vaezin, S. M. H., & Torkman, J., 2011. Wood import and export and its relation to major macroeconomics variables in Iran. Forest Policy and Economics, 13(4), 303-307.
[12] Foumani, B. S., Limaei, S. M., & Shahraji, T. R., 2016. Investigation of wood production and trading in Iran. Journal of Forest Science, 62(9), 407-412.
[13] Mollahasani, A., Tajdini, A., Rouhnia, M., 2012. Investigation the factors influencing on demand for lumber imports in Iran. Iranian Journal of Wood and Paper Industries, 4(1), 101-116. (In Persian)
[14] Fadaee, M., Derakhshan, M., 2015. Analysis of Short Run and Long Run Effects of Economic Sanctions on Economic Growth in Iran. Quarterly Journal of Economic Growth and Development Research, 5(18), 132-113. (In Persian).
[15] Jariani, F., Faraji Dizji, S., Najarzadeh, R., 2018. The Impact of Sanctions on Bilateral Trade of Agricultural Products between Iran and its Trading Partners. Agricultural Economics, 12(2), 69-90.
[16] Kazerooni, S.A., Khezri, A., 2018. The Impact of Economic Sanctions on Import of Iran Capital, Intermediate and Consumer Goods (1981-2013), 25(93), 393-420. (In Persian)
[17] Tavakkoli, A., Hemmasi, A., Talaeipour, M., Bazyar, B., Tajdini, A., 2015. Forecasting of printing and writing paper consumption in Iran using artificial neural network and classical methods, 30(WINTER 4), 632-652. doi: 10.22092/ijwpr.2015.101476 .(In Persian).
[18] Adeli, K., Yachkaschi, A., Mohammadi Limaei, S., Fallah, A., 2012. Condition of Timber Production in Iran and the Expected Production Rate in the Next Decade. Journal of Sustainable Development 5(1): 144-154.
[19] Chas-Amil, M. L., & Buongiorno, J., 2000. The demand for paper and paperboard: econometric models for the European Union. Applied Economics, 32(8), 987-999.
[20] Zhang, H., Zhao, Q., Kuuluvainen, J., Wang, C., & Li, S. (2015). Determinants of China's lumber import: A bounds test for cointegration with monthly data. Journal of Forest Economics, 21(4), 269-282.
[21] Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & Goswami, G. G., 2004. Exchange rate sensitivity of Japan’s bilateral trade flows. Japan and the world economy, 16(1), 1-15.
[22] Pesaran, M.H., Shin, Y., Smith, R.J., 2001. Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. J. Appl. Econometrics16, 289–326.
[23] Bahmani-Oskooee, M., & Nasir, A., 2004. ARDL approach to test the productivity Bias Hypothesis. Review of Development Economics, 8(3), 483–488.
[24] Ghatak, S., & Siddiki, J. U., 2001. The use of the ARDL approach in estimating virtual exchange rates in India. Journal of Applied statistics, 28(5), 573-583.
[25] Pahlavani, M., Wilson, E., & Worthington, A. C., 2005. Trade-GDP nexus in Iran: An application of the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model
Iranian Journal of Wood and Paper Industries
Volume 11, Issue 3
December 2020
Pages 457-469

Files

Share

How to cite

Statistics