Iranian Scientific Association of Wood and Paper Industries Iranian Journal of Wood and Paper Industries 2008-9066 17 1 2026 04 21 Determining an appropriate structure for developing the poplar value chain in Guilan Province Determining an appropriate structure for developing the poplar value chain in Guilan Province 69 83 735476 10.22034/ijwp.2025.2075449.1734 FA AmirHossien MoteshakkerHossieni Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agricultural Sciences, University of Guilan, Rasht, Iran Mohammad Kavoosi-Kalashami Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agricultural Sciences, University of Guilan, Rasht, Iran 0000-0003-1789-4496 Fatemeh Askari Bozayeh Researcher, Economic, Social and Extension Research Department, Gilan Agricultural and Natural Resources Research and Education Center, Agricultural Research, Education and Extension Organization (AREEO), Rasht, Iran. Journal Article 2025 10 24 Problem definition and objectives: Due to its suitable climate and fertile soil, Guilan Province is one of the geographical areas prone to the development of poplar cultivation in Iran. Determining the appropriate structure for developing the poplar value chain in this province can improve productivity, job creation, sustainability, enhanced participation of production factors and market actors, improve resilience, chain customer satisfaction, and moderate the impact of market intermediaries. The main goal of this study is to provide an appropriate mechanism for developing the poplar value chain in Guilan Province using expert opinions to create solidarity and synergy between the various pillars and links of the poplar value chain in this province.<br>Methodology: Considering the main objective of the research, two main steps were considered in its implementation. The first step of the study involves designing a comprehensive decision tree of drivers affecting the development of the poplar value chain in Guilan Province. The drivers were determined based on an extensive review of theoretical foundations, research background, and based on the perspectives of 15 selected experts (experts in the agricultural and wood industries of Guilan Province, leading poplar growers, and faculty members from the agricultural and natural resources research and education center of Guilan Province and University of Guilan) in the form of an experts' meeting. After preparing a comprehensive list of factors and drivers for the development of the poplar value chain in Guilan Province using the coding method, categorization of similar opinions, and examination of the frequency of selection of sample experts, the drivers were refined, modified, and finally selected. In the second step, the importance of various drivers of the development of the poplar value chain in Guilan province and the determination of the appropriate business model were determined using the Fuzzy Hierarchy Process (FAHP) and a paired comparison questionnaire.<br>Results: The research findings showed that the economic driver was assigned 51.65% importance among the decision tree criteria. Also, structural, environmental, and socio-cultural criteria are ranked second to fourth in importance. Among the economic drivers, profitability, productivity, and chain financing, with a total relative weight of 66.82 percent, are the top three economic drivers for the development of the poplar value chain in Guilan Province. The most important socio-cultural driver is building trust in people with a relative weight of 33.7 percent. The sub-criterion of preserving water and soil resources, with a relative weight of 40.66 percent, is the most important environmental driver. Also, energy and water supply, contract farming, and chain intelligence, with a total relative weight of 59.08 percent, are considered the three top structural drivers of poplar value chain development in Guilan Province, respectively. Comparisons among four business models - Orchestra, Market Maker, Layered, and Integrated - based on 21 studied drivers showed that the market maker model is the optimal mechanism for developing and creating sustainable interaction between actors and agents of the poplar value chain in Guilan province.<br>Conclusion: The Market Maker model represents the most effective and prioritized structure for developing the poplar value chain in Guilan Province in the current situation. It is suggested that financial resources and capital be directed purposefully to different links in this chain to provide the basis for market regulation and effective support for producers and consumers in the wood market. The creation of a platform or market-making institution by the private sector or the government can play a facilitating role in the wood market. The market maker manages risk on the supply and demand side and reduces price gaps in the market. Other roles that can be envisioned for the market maker include launching an online market for the wholesale and retail sale of poplar wood, providing banking facilities for the development of poplar farming, small and medium-sized processing rings in Guilan Province by guaranteeing and providing market maker collateral, providing financial support to startups, cores, and technology units in the field of wood farming and the poplar value chain, and modernizing the support infrastructure, transportation, and distribution network between the different rings of the poplar value chain in Guilan Province through appropriate financing. Problem definition and objectives: Due to its suitable climate and fertile soil, Guilan Province is one of the geographical areas prone to the development of poplar cultivation in Iran. Determining the appropriate structure for developing the poplar value chain in this province can improve productivity, job creation, sustainability, enhanced participation of production factors and market actors, improve resilience, chain customer satisfaction, and moderate the impact of market intermediaries. The main goal of this study is to provide an appropriate mechanism for developing the poplar value chain in Guilan Province using expert opinions to create solidarity and synergy between the various pillars and links of the poplar value chain in this province.<br>Methodology: Considering the main objective of the research, two main steps were considered in its implementation. The first step of the study involves designing a comprehensive decision tree of drivers affecting the development of the poplar value chain in Guilan Province. The drivers were determined based on an extensive review of theoretical foundations, research background, and based on the perspectives of 15 selected experts (experts in the agricultural and wood industries of Guilan Province, leading poplar growers, and faculty members from the agricultural and natural resources research and education center of Guilan Province and University of Guilan) in the form of an experts' meeting. After preparing a comprehensive list of factors and drivers for the development of the poplar value chain in Guilan Province using the coding method, categorization of similar opinions, and examination of the frequency of selection of sample experts, the drivers were refined, modified, and finally selected. In the second step, the importance of various drivers of the development of the poplar value chain in Guilan province and the determination of the appropriate business model were determined using the Fuzzy Hierarchy Process (FAHP) and a paired comparison questionnaire.<br>Results: The research findings showed that the economic driver was assigned 51.65% importance among the decision tree criteria. Also, structural, environmental, and socio-cultural criteria are ranked second to fourth in importance. Among the economic drivers, profitability, productivity, and chain financing, with a total relative weight of 66.82 percent, are the top three economic drivers for the development of the poplar value chain in Guilan Province. The most important socio-cultural driver is building trust in people with a relative weight of 33.7 percent. The sub-criterion of preserving water and soil resources, with a relative weight of 40.66 percent, is the most important environmental driver. Also, energy and water supply, contract farming, and chain intelligence, with a total relative weight of 59.08 percent, are considered the three top structural drivers of poplar value chain development in Guilan Province, respectively. Comparisons among four business models - Orchestra, Market Maker, Layered, and Integrated - based on 21 studied drivers showed that the market maker model is the optimal mechanism for developing and creating sustainable interaction between actors and agents of the poplar value chain in Guilan province.<br>Conclusion: The Market Maker model represents the most effective and prioritized structure for developing the poplar value chain in Guilan Province in the current situation. It is suggested that financial resources and capital be directed purposefully to different links in this chain to provide the basis for market regulation and effective support for producers and consumers in the wood market. The creation of a platform or market-making institution by the private sector or the government can play a facilitating role in the wood market. The market maker manages risk on the supply and demand side and reduces price gaps in the market. Other roles that can be envisioned for the market maker include launching an online market for the wholesale and retail sale of poplar wood, providing banking facilities for the development of poplar farming, small and medium-sized processing rings in Guilan Province by guaranteeing and providing market maker collateral, providing financial support to startups, cores, and technology units in the field of wood farming and the poplar value chain, and modernizing the support infrastructure, transportation, and distribution network between the different rings of the poplar value chain in Guilan Province through appropriate financing. https://www.ijwp.ir/article_735476_97ada39badb4d756ae87d6ed4880bac6.pdf